Global Trade Disruptions and Exchange Rate Volatility: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

This empirical study explores the relationship between global trade disruptions (such as tariff changes and logistics bottlenecks) and exchange rate volatility in major economies. Using monthly data over the last decade from IMF and World Bank sources, findings show that countries with diversified export bases have more stable currencies during trade shocks. Policy implications for export strategy and currency risk management are outlined.